Youth = Good ?

An oddly familiar billboard graces main highway leading into Guatemala City from San Lucas. A man named Otto Pérez in a brilliant orange shirt with a severe, piercing stare - the spitting image of the ex-general- looks down on passing cars. Following in his father's footsteps, Otto Pérez Leal joins in the low-risk, low-consequence practice of premature campaigning, demonstrating how the next generation of a network of corrupt politicians cannot be trusted to deviate from their parents' practice of impunity. In accordance with current enforcement of TSE (Supreme Electoral Tribunal) campaign regulation, it is possible that Pérez Leal will face a $100 fine, imposed several years from now.

Pérez Leal's presidential campaign leads me to question the promise of the youth movement in Guatemala. Youth social media campaigns, new transparency-focused organizations, voices and internationally funded youth movements inspire hope that those born after the worst years of "la violencia" will be unafraid to speak out boldly against impunity and lead the charge for legitimate democracy in Guatemala. Unfortunately for the hopeful, the youth voice in Guatemala appears to be dominated by the same forces that have operated a network of impunity for years, as evidenced by the presence of Guatemalan politics on Facebook. Otto Pérez Molina has 13,833 fans, where as the CICIG - the UN justice and security commission which the ex-general claims is unconstitutional - has a mere 3,905 (of which I am one).

A society's youth is not a neutral, benevolent subgroup. The political activity of the new generation is tarnished by the political traditions of the former. The youth voice in Guatemala that is likely invested in perpetuating the practice of impunity is better funded and more active on the internet. To a large degree, the children of the powerful control the characterization of public opinion on social media sites and the internet. Born in cyberspace, public opinion then gets fed back into small villages and town by print news journalists that depend on the internet for statistics, quotes and information for their stories. Individual voters, without access to a wide variety of critical viewpoints, are strongly influenced by these characterizations and act accordingly.

Proponents of Guatemala's social development must regrettably ask the same questions of youth leaders as they do of adult politicians. What are their baseline financial and social resources? Is there an opportunity to reap personal advantage from a political position? How have they behaved politically/socially/economically that might give us a clue as to what kind of political figure they could be?

Campaigning in the Off-Season

Otto Pérez Molina, retired General, ex- and current presidential hopeful for the Patriots Party/Partido Patriota (PP) has successfully, and illegally begun his presidential campaign through an aggressive program of speeches, falsely promoted as an opportunity for Guatemalans to voice their grievances and be heard. The program, entitled "Que Hable Guatemala" regularly updates its Facebook page with videos of Pérez Molina speaking about Guatemala´s many challenges that have been left unanswered during the past three years of the Colóm administration.

Jumping the gun on campaign season is common in many Latin American countries, where laws are rarely enforced and impunity is just a perk of elected office. In the case of Pérez Molina, it appears as though the overwhelming support for his campaign, as well as general frustration with the Colóm Administration make pre-season campaigning permissible. So why does the "Que Hable Guatemala" campaign so enrage la guatemalgringa?

The campaign is advertised as an opportunity for dialogue - a "mesa de dialogo". However, Pérez Molina is the only one speaking. In 17 of 22 Guatemalan departments visited, the project has failed to take pictures of anyone at the podium other than the ex-general himself. I commented on the "Que hable Guatemala" Facebook group, asking how it was a dialogue if only the general was speaking, and the page administrator thanked me for my valuable opinion and referred me to the project website, www.quehableguatemala.com. Please scour the page for evidence to the contrary.

If Pérez Molina were truly interested in Seguridad y Justicia (Security and Justice), he would have supported the work of the CICIG and Castresana in the extradition of Alfonso Portillo, the cleansing of the police force and several other accomplishments, rather than declaring the body unconstitutional. Pérez Molina benefits from the very environment of impunity that the CICIG is designed to combat, as demonstrated through the "Que Hable Guatemala" campaign itself. His messages for change in Guatemala are the concerted repetition of titles, without any mention of methods, or budget. Unfortunately, this might be all he needs to win.

A jump start on the campaign season does truly provide an unfair advantage. Speeches, community dialog, public opinion polls, and bright orange ties all encourage Guatemalans to recognize Pérez Molina as a prominent public figure and naturally associate him with political leadership. In July of 2010, the PP hired a marketing firm to administer a public opinion survey, that would be released simultaneously with those of a CID Gallup survey run by the government. The PP survey shows that the majority of decided voters (39%) plan to vote for Pérez Molina. El Periodico, a nationally distributed daily, gave the PP survey as much space and mention as it did to the government´s Gallup poll, introducing equal suspicion of bias for both surveys. Guatemalans will read the front page and not recognize the different between a marketing firm and CID Gallup - and subconsciously make a personal judgement about who they trust more. The PP survey also asked a strange question, "If you were offered economic support from the UNE government in exchange for your vote, would you agree with that?" (83 percent of those surveyed responded NO). Asking that question in that way puts the government at odds with the ethical conduct of individual Guatemalans. It causes the survey participant to subconsciously link the illegal exchange of money for votes with the current administration, rather than with the very real history of corrupt campaign practices in the country.

Currently, there is some opposition to the Que Hable Guatemala campaign from those that receive support through the government´s conditional cash transfer program, Mi Familia Progresa. In April, Guatemalans in the department of Jalapa protested and tried to block the PP meetings. Pérez Molina claims that this is part of a general attack on "varios sectores"/"various sectors" by the UNE administration, that they are seeking to censor the press and wage an assault on the business community.

Unless critical thinkers question the actions of the PP, there is a chance that Guatemala will extend its struggle to free itself from a tragic history of violence and military impunity in the upcoming presidential election.

Question #2 and #2.5

Question 2.5

Costa Rica's Attorney General Francisco Dall'Anese did indeed announce today that he will renounce his post and travel to Guatemala on the 1st of August to begin his term as the Commissioner of the CICIG.

Question 2 - Part Answer

Dall'Anese speaks in vague, meaningless phrases - the opposite of Castresana's concise, brave and definitive statements that made him such an intriguing visionary in the fight against impunity in Guatemala. Statements like the following strike me as sufficient reason for unease and suspicion:

Bland Statement #1

“Yo no quiero arrastrar los problemas que haya tenido el doctor Castresana con las autoridades guatemaltecas. Empezaré de cero y trataré de que las cosas funcionen”, expresó.

Translation: "I don't want to bring along the problems that Castresana has had with Guatemalan authorities. I will start from scratch and try to make things work."

Unease: From someone who respects and admires the work that Castresana has done in Guatemala, and who will hold little over a one year term, this sounds erroneous, short-sighted and vague. It sounds almost like a strategy to free himself from accusations of failure if he is unable to perform.

Source: Prensa Libre, 21 de julio, 2010 "Dall'Anese afirma que no hay receta magica" por Coralia Orantes http://www.prensalibre.com/noticias/DallAnese-afirma-receta-magica_0_302369798.html:

Bland Statement #2

Statement: “Una sociedad sin prensa no es democrática."

Translation: "A society without the press is not democratic."

Unease: This goes without saying.

Source: CICIG website, http://cicig.org/index.php?page=fiscal-general-de-costa-rica

Bland Statement #3

Statement: “Nadie puede ir de afuera con recetas mágicas para sanear el sistema judicial; en realidad Guatemala es y va a ser lo que los guatemaltecos quieren que sea”.

Translation: "No outsider can come in with a magic recipe to cleanse the judicial system. The reality is that Guatemala is and will be what the Guatemalans want it to be."

Unease: Who are "los guatemaltecos" that want the system to be wrought with corruption and impunity? How about those who are silences by fear or powerless because of poverty or exclusion? His statement suggests he is already defeated by the political obstacles Castresana found overwhelming.

Source: Prensa Libre, 21 de julio, 2010 "Dall'Anese afirma que no hay receta magica" por Coralia Orantes http://www.prensalibre.com/noticias/DallAnese-afirma-receta-magica_0_302369798.html:


Judging from these statements, Dall'Anese is not the fighter, the careful but bold decision-maker that will be needed to continue Castresana's work. If Dall'Anese is not successful, there is a change that the Guatemalan Mission to the UN will not apply to continue the work of the CICIG, and the project will be scrubbed, just as other Central American countries are taking an interest in adopting a regional impunity fighting body based on the CICIG model. A pity to say, but this is not looking good.

Can we trust Francisco Dall’Anese?

The unusual, innovative, and highly successful International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala is under new management. The resignation of ex-Commissioner Carlos Castresana prompted a sudden national discouragement with one of the most innovative, probing attempts to cleanse a corrupt justice and security system ever known. Meaningful questions now rest on whether or not his successor, the present Attorney General of Costa Rica, Francisco Dall’Anese will be as successful as Castresana. Over the next few weeks, I will be exploring some of these questions as I read through Dall’Anese´s writings on justice and security, and explore some of his positions. I plan to investigate the following questions:

Question #1

Is it advantageous to have another Central American in charge of the CICIG? Central America is a unique region where judges may develop a tough-on-organized-crime record as a disguise. Organized crime is not one, static evil, but an ever-changing band of families and cartels that operate in different regions, use different tactics and develop opposing political alliances. An impressive record against corruption and impunity serves to quell public fears surrounding a judge´s professional integrity, while silently breaking down one criminal band in the service of another.

Question #2

Is Dall’Anese fully cognizant of the CICIG´s operations? Does his professional career demonstrate that he fully understands the amount of engagement and the advisory role that the CICIG must take to be successful? Is he motivated to act accordingly?

Question #2.5

Will he continue on as Attorney General of Costa Rica during his contract as CICIG Commissioner?

Question #3

Does he have sufficient knowledge of the Guatemalan context? Costa Rica did not suffer through 36 years of civil war, nor is San José among the most dangerous cities in the Western Hemisphere. There is no army embarrassingly reassigned to keep domestic order. Though similarities abound, the major difference between Costa Rica and Guatemala is in the quality of justice and security. I anticipate a weak performance from Dall’Anese should he treat Guatemala too much like his home country.

Question #4

Is he likely to fall victim to the same defamation campaign as Castresana? How spotless is his personal life?

The answers will provide some insight into whether the strategy of the CICIG, or Castresana himself can be credited with the progress against impunity in Guatemala that has taken place over the past few years.

Can we trust Francisco Dall’Anese?

The unusual, innovative, and highly successful International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala is under new management. The resignation of ex-Commissioner Carlos Castresana prompted a sudden national discouragement with one of the most innovative, probing attempts to cleanse a corrupt justice and security system ever known. Meaningful questions now rest on whether or not his successor, the present Attorney General of Costa Rica, Francisco Dall’Anese will be as successful as Castresana. Over the next few weeks, I will be exploring some of these questions as I read through Dall’Anese´s writings on justice and security, and explore some of his positions. I plan to investigate the following questions:

Question #1

Is it advantageous to have another Central American in charge of the CICIG? Central America is a unique region where judges may develop a tough-on-organized-crime record as a disguise. Organized crime is not one, static evil, but an ever-changing band of families and cartels that operate in different regions, use different tactics and develop opposing political alliances. An impressive record against corruption and impunity serves to quell public fears surrounding a judge´s professional integrity, while silently breaking down one criminal band in the service of another.

Question #2

Is Dall’Anese fully cognizant of the CICIG´s operations? Does his professional career demonstrate that he fully understands the amount of engagement and the advisory role that the CICIG must take to be successful? Is he motivated to act accordingly?

Question #2.5

Will he continue on as Attorney General of Costa Rica during his contract as CICIG Commissioner?

Question #3

Does he have sufficient knowledge of the Guatemalan context? Costa Rica did not suffer through 36 years of civil war, nor is San José among the most dangerous cities in the Western Hemisphere. There is no army embarrassingly reassigned to keep domestic order. Though similarities abound, the major difference between Costa Rica and Guatemala is in the quality of justice and security. I anticipate a weak performance from Dall’Anese should he treat Guatemala too much like his home country.

The answers will provide some insight into whether the strategy of the CICIG, or Castresana himself can be credited with the progress against impunity in Guatemala that has taken place over the past few years.

Back in New York City

Now returned to New York, I will be writing on a wider range of topics. Be aware!

Housing Project #1: Why

Today, President Álvaro Colom announced that the cost of rebuilding from Tropical Storm Agatha could exceed US$100 million dollars. And the winter has just begun. In the department of Soloá alone (where J.Crew shot it´s Spring 2010 catalog), 7,115 people were living in shelters on June 6th. The total death toll is estimated at 165, with millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure and crop lands. Now, Guatemalans will do what they did after Hurricane Mitch, Hurricane Stan, and countless other extreme weather events that devastated the country; they will rebuild right where their homes were before, using the same flimsy materials the used before, and continue to fear the rain.

Anyone that ever tried to re-paint sprawling urban slums as seas of willing entrepreneurs and promise was kidding themselves. For decades, and perhaps centuries, slums have served as an easy, free solution to problems of urban housing shortages and growing migration to urban areas. Slums are horrible places to live, and they need to me eliminated. Residents of slums lack opportunities because they are weighted down with vulnerability – to extreme weather events, disease, violence, hunger and thirst. This is a not a cheerful “Necessity is the Mother of Invention” situation. This is a situation in which literally millions, and globally billions of people suffer in squalor. Make no mistake. It is the responsibility of the international community, private enterprises that employ slum dwellers, national, municipal and city governments to eliminate, rather than rehabilitate slums in the developing world.

Most primary stakeholders write off public housing developments because they require more financial, institutional and technological resources than these developing world megacities have to spend. However, many cities´ slums are built on land that is uninhabitable, subject to mudslides every few years (Guatemala City, Rio de Janiero), and endangers public water sources (São Paolo). While the international community writes off public housing development as too expensive, millions that could be spent on viable, sustainable long term solutions will be wasted on repeated handouts for disaster relief, lives will be lost in deadly flash floods and mudslides, and more abstractly but perhaps most importantly, more individuals will be disabled by insecurity, unable to pursue their dreams and take advantage of even meager opportunities.

Marketing public housing to powerful, rich stakeholders requires an expert quantification of the long term social benefits of public housing, as well as a quantification, and monetization of the social costs of continuing with slum rehabilitation projects. I invite you to share your ideas on the social benefits and costs, and to await future information on how I seek to measure these things.

For more information on the effects of Agatha, please visit CONRED at http://conred.gob.gt/incidentes/2010/tormenta-tropical-agatha